What’s available today
“What’s Available Today” data is a snapshot of what is available to purchase today- This is a “forward view” trend
Available inventory has doubled over past 2 years, but the feeding frenzy caused by covid and the 3% mortgage rate pandemic had caused inventory to drop to historic lows and drive prices up. Inventory right now is pretty “normal”. So adequate inventory and higher rates mean buyers don’t have to be in a big hurry. This has caused the median price to trend down slightly over past 2 years.
What sold last month
“What sold” data is a view of what sold during the past month- This is a “rear view” trend
Looking at median price of what’s sold over past 2 years, we see prices decline slightly at the end of the year and begin upwards early in the year. Overall trend is pretty flat over 2 years with a very slight incline.
From the lender’s perspective:
It seems the expectation for mortgage rates this coming year to depend on jobs data and inflation. Worst case scenario: If coming jobs report is stronger than expected and inflation remains elevated, then the coming year will look a lot like the past 2 years; flat. Best case: a softer economic data report will be good for rates.
What I think of our market future:
What we’re NOT seeing is a long term pricing crater. Homes that are what the buyer is looking for; good shape, move-in ready without a lot of work and in the right area are selling at or near asking price. But there’s not a ton of buyers yet, so homes that are not quite ticking the boxes and/or need updating or some work to meet expectations are languishing a bit longer on the market and selling for less than asking. After the crazy price increases we saw during the pandemic, there was fear that we were on a bubble that would eventually burst. Prices would fall way back and millions of new homeowners would be upside down causing a foreclosure crisis. None of that happened because none of the bubble factors existed. We survived and the housing market that kept the economy afloat during really bad economic times looks to be holding strong as the rest of the markets catch up.
Asia and I track numerous data points that are great indicators of what’s happening in the Tucson market. This enables us to stay in front of local trends and guide our clients through what can be turbulent waters. We also connect with several industry experts who provide unique analysis of the broader national housing market as it is important to understand where Tucson fits into the overall landscape.
~ Doug Deck, REALTOR- ABR, MRP, SRES