Fourth Quarter 2022:
* Median Sales Price rose 2% to $342,000
* Current Listings increased by 12%
* Days on Market increased to 8 days
* Price Reductions on the rise = 20%
Highlights for the year 2022:
* Median Sales Price rose 14.5% to $342,000
* Current Listings increased by 43%
* Days on Market increased from 5 to 8 days
Words “out” for 2023: Crash, bubble, correction.
Words “in” for 2023: Balanced, balanced, balanced!
There are plenty of signs at the local Tucson level that point to a more balanced market that benefits the buyer more than 6 months ago;
- There are more homes available to purchase
- Prices have stopped increasing at a crazy rate
- Homes are taking a little longer to sell
- Many sellers have lowered their asking price
- Mortgage rates continue to be lower than historical average
And yet at the national as well as local level, factors that support a seller’s market still exist.
- Home prices are still increasing, and predicted to continue rising through 2023
- Home values continue to increase. Homes purchased recently have not lost value
- Inventory remains low and is not expected to open up significantly
But the memories of an actual crash like we experienced 15 years ago linger, and for some fortune-tellers, any indication that shows the market not advancing at an insane rate must be pointing to an imminent collapse of the housing market.
Nope.
Economists and housing experts from all corners of the market agree; the factors that create a bubble, crash or market correction do not exist, and home prices are not falling in 2023.
- No housing bubble. Pandemic-induced demand and historically low mortgage rates created a once-in-a-lifetime event, but not artificially created like we see in a bubble.
- Mortgage rates will stabilize. The Fed influenced mortgage rate increases to combat inflation, but they have already indicated a pullback from more aggressive moves.
- Inventory will not increase dramatically. Many homeowners (~30 million) took advantage of the low interest rates to refinance, and are not ready to lose that benefit by selling.
- Sellers will be more competitive. Homes still need to be sold (people relocate or have motivating life events), but fewer buyers means sellers will have to pull back on asking price or offer other concessions.
So if you’re hoping for a big bust in 2023, it would seem that none of the factors exisat that could make such a thing happen.
If you need to sell, you are still in a good position to get a great deal. Might take a little longer, and your agent may guide you into a creative approach, but it is still a seller’s market.
If you are thinking of buying and wondering “is this the right time to buy or should I wait?” ask yourself 2 questions: 1) Do I love this house?, and 2) Can I afford this house? If “yes” to both, then the time is now.
the Quick Facts:
the 30 Thousand foot picture:
Median Sales Price slowing slightly
While available homes continued to increase
And homes are still selling fast, but slowing
- * Data through December 2022. Data includes all home types in Pima County only, all price ranges
Asia and I track numerous data points that are great indicators of what’s happening in the Tucson market. This enables us to stay in front of local trends and guide our clients through what can be turbulent waters. We also connect with several industry experts who provide unique analysis of the broader national housing market as it is important to understand where Tucson fits into the overall landscape.
~ Doug Deck, REALTOR- ABR, MRP, SRES